With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
The push given to rooftop solar installation in the Interim Budget ties in with its high rate of adoption in Tier-II and -III cities of India. If original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the automobile industry, government, and the solar sector are to be believed, in cities of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Kerala, 45-50 per cent of electric-vehicle (EV) users are employing rooftop power to charge their vehicles. This is compared to the national average of 25 per cent, say industry sources.
With billionaire Gautam Adani charged in the United States with alleged bribery and fraud, the Congress on Thursday said it 'vindicates' its demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation into the various 'scams' involving his conglomerate.
Dar also said Pakistan views Russia as an important player in the West, South and Central Asia, and strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia remains an important priority for Pakistan's foreign policy.
'The border deal offers a hedge for India against Trump's unpredictability when it comes to his approach to competition with China.'
Private consumption is back driven by festive spending, and the medium-term economic outlook remains bullish as the innate strength of the macro-fundamentals reasserts itself, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Wednesday. Global economic activity remained resilient during Q4:2024 amidst fragile confidence and rising protectionism, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the November Bulletin.
Energy's exit is a cautionary tale for several foreign investors in India as close to 16 Gw of solar and wind power projects languish without any power purchase agreement, 24 Gw without transmission connectivity and around 2 Gw unilaterally cancelled by project developers.
Backing embattled Adani Group, rating agency CRISIL Ratings on Friday said the conglomerate has sufficient liquidity and operational cash flows to meet debt obligations and committed capex and that there has been no negative actions so far by lenders and investors following the US indictment of group founder chairman. The Adani Group, which has the flexibility to reduce certain discretionary capital expenditure (capex) depending on developments in financial markets and future capital availability, has a healthy Ebitda and cash balance that reduces its dependence on external debt to sustain operations, it said in a bulletin.
'If the criminal or civil charges are deemed unworthy or defective, Trump's new justice department and SEC can withdraw the criminal and civil cases.'
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Shigeru Ishiba is expected to prioritise strengthening Japan's military capabilities and fostering deeper international partnerships, particularly with India, with whom Japan shares significant strategic interests, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Ahead of the US presidential elections this November, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are set to face off in their first debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Tuesday night ET.
Jagjit Singh Dallewal, a 70-year-old Punjab farmer leader, is on his 21st day of a hunger strike demanding the Indian government address farmers' concerns, including a legal guarantee of MSP on crops. His health has deteriorated, and doctors have recommended immediate hospitalization. However, Dallewal, a cancer patient, has refused medical treatment.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged CEOs of US majors to take advantage of India's growth story as the country is making all efforts to become the third largest economy of the world in his third term. India is currently the fifth largest economy of the world after the US, China, Germany and Japan with a GDP of around $3.9 trillion. India has been the fastest growing large economies of the world with GDP growth rate of over 7 per cent for the last three consecutive years.
The Indian Diaspora has been able to carve a niche in their adopted countries as a result of their talent, perseverance and hardworking nature, asserts Rup Narayan Das.
India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
Lisa Curtis, who served as deputy assistant to President Trump and as National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia from 2017 to 2021, said she expected the same bumps for India and the US, as in Trump's first term, including tariff, dependence on Russia over arms supply and oil purchase from Iran. Curtis, however, said both countries could never enter an alliance but develop a partnership that is "short of an alliance". She hoped them to achieve a cooperation that deters China, but also prepares both countries in case of a crisis or conflict, be it in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, or another flare-up on the India-China border.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget proposals lay out a comprehensive road map for transforming India into a developed nation, focusing on key priorities that aim to generate ample opportunities for all citizens in "Viksit Bharat". It sets the stage for sustained economic growth, social development, and technological advancement.
India's jugalbandhi with coal and clean energy is coming unstuck, neither achieving adequate renewable generation nor ensuring sufficient coal-fired power in the quest to become a $5-trillion economy. Six months have elapsed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an ambitious climate agenda for India at COP26 at Glasgow. The net zero emissions target by 2070 is a distant one, but there are nearer-term plans to meet 50 per cent of energy demand with renewables by 2030 by increasing capacity to 450 Gw. A cursory look at the balance sheet of India's climate progress since November reveals ponderous progress towards meeting the renewables target even as the country is scrambling to expand coal-fired generation in the face of a power crisis.
'We have to keep a watch because India-Sri Lanka has a history that whenever there has been a change in government, either the connectivity projects have been questioned or cancelled or revived.'
'Trump will absolutely back New Delhi on its position that Pakistan must do more to crack down on terrorists that threaten India.'
In a post on X, Modi said, "Happy to have welcomed @POTUS @JoeBiden to 7, Lok Kalyan Marg. Our meeting was very productive."
It was good fortune for India to have Atal Bihari Vajpayee lead the government at a crucial moment in our history. He avoided India meeting the fate of Iraq or Ukraine, asserts military historian Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
'While criticising India's high tariffs, Mr Trump stated he would impose reciprocal taxes on Indian products if re-elected.' 'However, since India's tariffs follow WTO rules, Mr Trump's actions would violate these rules,' Ajay Srivastava points out.
As order books gain from India's increased capital outlay, some large capital goods and engineering companies are together spending over Rs 11,500 crore in creating new facilities, data shows. Nine engineering and capital goods companies, where data was available, including Siemens, Larsen & Tourbo (L&T) and KEC International, have a combined capital expenditure (capex) of about Rs 11,500 crore or more. Others such as ABB India and Thermax Global are also adding capacities.
The number of persons employed in 27 sectors, including agriculture, trade and financial services, increased by 3.31 per cent year-on-year to 59.66 crore in 2022-23, according to data published by the RBI on Monday. During 2021-22, the employment in these 27 sectors stood at 57.75 crore.
India has abstained in the UN General Assembly on a resolution that demanded that Russia immediately cease its aggression against Ukraine and urgently withdraw its military and other unauthorised personnel from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, in July bought $2.8 billion worth of crude oil from Russia, second only to China which remains the largest importer of Russian oil, a report said. Russia emerged as India's biggest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries, after Russian oil was available on discount following some European nations shunning purchases from Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
India added nearly 4.7 crore jobs during 2023-24, taking the total number of employed people to 64.33 crore spread over 27 sectors covering the entire economy, according to Reserve Bank data. The number of employed people was 59.67 crore at the end of March 2023, said the RBI's update on 'Measuring Productivity at the Industry Level-The India KLEMS [Capital (K), Labour (L), Energy (E), Material (M) and Services (S)] Database'.
An article on 'State of the Economy' in the monthly Bulletin also said the improvement in the outlook for agriculture and the revival of rural spending have turned out to be the bright spots in the evolution of demand conditions. Consumer price inflation ticked up in June 2024 after three consecutive months of moderation as a broad flare-up in vegetable prices halted the overall disinflation that had been underway, it said.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
The strong message from the prime minister is of continuity of policies he considers right with strong emphasis on execution, points out T N C Rajagopalan.
'With technology advancing, we should go all out and put up solar, wind, pumped storage, and battery, and make India go green.'
'The RJD is a family centric party and its top leadership's main concern is only to promote the family.'
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
Whether it's Carrefour, Ford, or other foreign majors, they are ready to adjust their strategies and design their plans in a way that would address the Indian consumption story.
